U.S. President Donald Trump has announced he will not attend the G20 Leaders’ Summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, scheduled for November 22–23, 2025. Instead, he will send Vice President J.D. Vance to represent the United States, citing scheduling conflicts. Many analysts view the move as a deliberate snub, rooted in escalating tensions between Washington and Pretoria over trade, foreign policy, and Trump’s controversial rhetoric on South African domestic issues.
A Strained U.S.–South Africa Relationship
The bilateral relationship has been deteriorating since Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025. Several flashpoints have worsened the discord:
Trade Tensions and Tariffs
In August 2025, the Trump administration imposed a 30% tariff on South African exports to the U.S., the highest rate applied to any sub-Saharan African country. This threatens South Africa’s economy, as the U.S. is its second-largest trading partner. Industries such as wine and agriculture, which previously benefited from duty-free access under AGOA, now face serious disadvantages.
The South African government has warned of job losses in export-driven industries like citrus and wine, with some analysts projecting tens of thousands at risk. Pretoria has responded with a multi-pronged strategy to negotiate with the U.S., diversify export markets, and support affected industries.
“White Genocide” Allegations
Trump has repeatedly made the discredited claim that South Africa’s land reform policies amount to a “white genocide” targeting Afrikaner farmers. During a May 2025 Oval Office meeting, he even presented video clips and media reports to support his argument. President Cyril Ramaphosa rejected these claims outright, stressing that while farm attacks are a concern, they are largely linked to crime and robbery rather than state-sponsored racial violence.
Foreign Policy Disputes
South Africa’s case at the International Court of Justice against Israel has been sharply criticized by Washington. In February 2025, Trump cut funding for key HIV/AIDS programs in what many saw as retaliation. Pretoria has also downgraded Taiwan’s diplomatic status to align with Beijing, further straining ties with the U.S.
The G20 Summit: South Africa’s Historic Opportunity
South Africa is the first African nation to host a G20 Summit, with its presidency running from December 2024 to November 2025 under the theme “Solidarity, Equality and Sustainability.” President Ramaphosa has emphasized priorities such as climate finance, debt relief, and global inequality. A taskforce led by Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz is working on solutions for wealth disparities.
Trump’s absence risks overshadowing these goals. Analysts warn it signals U.S. disinterest in African-led multilateralism, potentially weakening South Africa’s ability to push its agenda. Still, International Relations Minister Ronald Lamola welcomed Vice President Vance’s attendance, stressing that “substantive outcomes, not personalities,” will define the summit’s success.
Trump’s Motives: Diplomacy or Deflection?
Trump’s official reason for skipping the summit is scheduling conflicts. Yet the announcement came as he revealed that the 2026 G20 Summit will be held at his Trump National Doral resort in Miami. The decision has sparked criticism over conflicts of interest, since the event could generate millions in taxpayer-funded revenue for Trump’s property.
Some observers argue that Trump is avoiding potential confrontations with leaders from China and Russia. Others see it as part of his broader disdain for international institutions, aligning with his administration’s earlier withdrawal from global multilateral engagement.
Implications for U.S.–South Africa Relations
Reactions in South Africa have been mixed. Some analysts call Trump’s absence disrespectful, with political analyst Ntsikelelo Breakfast describing the delegation of Vance as a slight. Others argue it could push South Africa to strengthen ties with BRICS partners like China and Russia.
Economically, the 30% tariffs weigh heavily, threatening export industries. Pretoria’s counter-strategies include trade diversification and targeted support for affected industries, but uncertainty remains. Diplomatically, Ramaphosa’s attempts to reset ties with Washington, including his visit to the White House in May 2025, have so far delivered limited results.
For the U.S., sending the Vice President ensures representation but diminishes its influence. Analysts note that “pronouncements from a vice president carry less weight,” particularly when Washington’s role in Africa is already under scrutiny.
Looking Ahead: A Diplomatic Test for South Africa
As the G20 Summit approaches, South Africa must navigate Trump’s absence while advancing its global agenda. Success will depend on whether Pretoria can broker consensus among member states and elevate Africa’s priorities — even without full U.S. participation. The outcome may determine whether this is remembered as a historic milestone for Africa’s global leadership or a missed opportunity overshadowed by strained U.S.–South Africa relations.