Even though South Africa has had a significant decline in new Covid-19 infections since the Omicron variant peaked in December 2021, there is still a big warning of a fifth wave expected to hit in the coming weeks.
There is ‘little doubt’ about a fifth Covid-19 wave
According to the Bureau for Economic Research (BER), new Covid cases could be picking up within the next several weeks – especially now that we are moving into a different season.
“Indeed, wastewater samples in Gauteng already show an increasing incidence of Covid-19. We have little doubt that there will be a fifth Covid-19 wave.
“The baseline remains that this will not be accompanied by anything close to the type of mobility restrictions enforced before, i.e. that the experience will be similar to the Omicron wave where the economy was kept largely open throughout the fourth wave.”
This wave is expected to be more manageable
Adrian Gore, the chief executive of Discovery, has previously revealed that in the case of another wave, it should be “a lot more benign” and less severe compared to other Covid waves. However, the group said it will still treat it with caution and so should the rest of the country.
According to Gore, variants of the disease “emerge in parallel to one another”. In other words, there is no reason why the fifth wave should be expected to then less severe than others. However, as the virus becomes endemic as more time goes on, the more benign the virus is expected to become.
And based on these patterns, Gore says the fifth Covid-19 wave can be expected to hit SA at the end of April/early May.
“While it may be more severe, we still think this is unlikely; but it is a risk and, therefore, I think we need to be careful not to take a hard view. The overriding position as a planner or business leader is to expect the best but plan for the worst and make sure you can survive some severity of a wave.”
Adrian Gore, Discovery’s chief executive.
State of Disaster to return if wave hits SA hard
Just after President Cyril Ramaphosa officially ended the State of Disaster, Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs (CoGTA) Minister, Dr Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma, warned that if the government sees fit, state of disaster can be declared again.
“If we look after ourselves, wear masks and make sure that we do what needs to be done… we may avoid a situation where this pandemic becomes a disaster again. That is what we’re hoping for. In the event that it becomes a disaster, we will have to revert back to the Disaster Management Act.”