Gold prices smashed through the $4,000 per ounce mark on October 8, 2025 — a glittering milestone that has shaken markets worldwide. But in South Africa, once the undisputed heart of global gold mining, the triumph carries a hollow ring. Speaking at the Johannesburg Mining Indaba, Anglo American CEO Duncan Wanblad delivered a blistering critique of policy stagnation, warning that two decades of indecision have cost the nation billions in lost investment and left a “lost generation” of dormant mines. As global investors chase the gold rally and demand for critical minerals surges, the central question remains: can new reforms reignite South Africa’s mining potential?
The Lost Generation: Wanblad’s Warning to Policymakers
Wanblad, one of the most respected figures in African mining, did not mince words. “We’ve lost a generation of exploration,” he declared, pointing to two decades of regulation that discouraged prospecting and foreign capital. In the 1970s, South Africa produced more than 1,000 tonnes of gold a year. Today, output has plunged below 100 tonnes — a 90% collapse driven by outdated infrastructure, labor unrest, and red tape.
The economic losses are staggering. Wanblad estimates that billions in revenue remain trapped in unmined deposits, as international investors turn instead to countries like Australia and Canada. “This isn’t just about gold; it’s about missing out on a global commodities supercycle,” he said. Foreign direct investment in mining has fallen 75% since 2010, and more than 450,000 jobs are now at risk as shafts close and deep-level operations wind down.
Still, Wanblad sees opportunity amid the crisis. With Africa holding around 30% of the world’s critical minerals, he urged policymakers to streamline permitting and incentivize exploration. Gold’s record-breaking run — up more than 50% in 2025 alone — may yet serve as the spark for reform.
Market Surge: JSE Miners and Juniors Ride the Gold Wave
When gold hit $4,000, the Johannesburg Stock Exchange lit up. Harmony Gold shares jumped 15%, AngloGold Ashanti gained 12%, and the mining sector as a whole posted its strongest rally in over a decade. Precious metals now make up nearly two-thirds of the JSE’s market capitalization, after a 27% surge in September alone.
For South Africa’s smaller, junior miners, the boom has reopened long-closed doors. A new R240 million government exploration fund offers up to R50 million per project, while Anglo American has pledged an additional R600 million to support emerging black-owned mining ventures. West Wits Mining’s Qala Shallows project — the first new underground gold mine in 15 years — is expected to produce 100,000 ounces annually by 2026.
Analysts predict that well-positioned juniors could deliver triple-digit returns if current reforms hold. Yet challenges persist: power instability, logistical bottlenecks, and slow permitting continue to threaten progress.
Global Rush: Investors Seek Shelter in Gold
Following political shifts and fiscal uncertainty in the world’s major economies, global investors have poured into gold as a hedge against volatility. Financial institutions such as JPMorgan and BlackRock now forecast potential highs of $4,500 per ounce by year-end, citing inflation risks and central bank stockpiling. Exchange-traded funds have absorbed tens of billions in fresh inflows, with a growing share directed toward emerging-market miners.
For South Africa, this influx represents renewed global interest. As investors diversify away from overvalued equities, undervalued African producers are gaining attention, particularly those positioned to supply both gold and strategic minerals.
Powering the Future: The Battery-Metals Advantage
While gold captures headlines, South Africa’s platinum-group metals (PGMs) — including platinum, rhodium, and palladium — may hold the key to long-term growth. These metals are critical for electric-vehicle batteries, catalytic converters, and hydrogen fuel cells. South Africa produces roughly 80% of global platinum and 40% of rhodium, making it a vital supplier to major EV manufacturers such as CATL and BYD.
Foreign investment in local PGM projects has surpassed $2 billion this year, driven by soaring demand from Asia’s clean-energy industries. Analysts believe that developing domestic refining and battery-component facilities could add more than $5 billion to exports by 2027 — provided South Africa captures more value from its own supply chain.
Reforms and the Road Ahead
The government’s 2025 Critical Minerals and Metals Strategy outlines plans to stabilize energy supply, accelerate infrastructure repairs, and simplify exploration permits. Under Operation Vulindlela, more than 1,800 MW of renewable energy capacity has already been added to support mines. The new Mineral Resources Development Bill aims to attract foreign investors through clear ownership rules and faster licensing.
According to PwC’s SA Mine 2025 report, these measures could drive 5–7% annual growth if logistics upgrades stay on track. For smaller firms, initiatives like the IDC’s R240 million exploration fund promise inclusivity and new opportunities for transformation.
The Verdict: Revival or Mirage?
Optimists see a once-in-a-generation opportunity. With prices soaring, policy momentum building, and technology lowering exploration risks, South African miners could regain their global stature. But skeptics caution that recurring power cuts, labor unrest, and regulatory inertia remain formidable obstacles.
As Wanblad emphasized, recovery will not happen by chance — it will require political will and decisive execution. Gold’s record run may not last forever, but it offers a rare moment for South Africa to reclaim its place among the world’s mining leaders.