Energy expert at Hohm Energy, Matthew Cruise, says that South Africa is likely to experience beyond stage 8 load shedding, warning that, contrary to promises from the national government, the electricity crisis is likely to abate anytime soon.
During an interview with 702 on Tuesday, Cruise said there is a 50% chance that South Africa will move to stage 8 load shedding in some form or another from July, as the country moves into its winter peak.
“In July we have our winter peak demand that takes place, and demand on the grid is between 32 ,000 and 34,000 megawatts,” he said.
Currently, Eskom is struggling to keep the lights on with constant load shedding reaching its highest level of stage 6. The summer demand on the grid is between 26,000 and 28,000 and Eskom is struggling to meet this demand.
“Just by nature of seasonality, there will be an extra 4,000MW that will be demanded by the nation that will be unmet,” Cruise said.
“If you add that to the current levels of load shedding, it’s clear we’re going to stage 8 and beyond-even so far as stage 10.
“Stage 10 is definitely a distinct possibility,” he said.
Eskom’s official load shedding stages only go as high as stage 8. At stage 8 load shedding, 8,000MW is shed from the national grid, which will result in South Africans spending up to 14 hours a day without energy .
Cruise said, while stage 8 was given to consumers and municipalities as the highest stage of load shedding the country could experience, in reality, the stages are completely arbitrary.
Theoretically, South Africa could go up to stage 20 load shedding, if that’s how much power is removed from the grid, cruise said.
“What would happen if that (stage 20) were to take place? All loads representing load to the grid would be removed from the grid so that it could be maintained and the power stations could continue to power the lines and each other.
“They would move to an idling state where they could power the power stations and keep the lines active,” he said.
Source: Cape Talk, Business Tech, image from Twitter: @CapeTalk