The South African Weather Service (SAWS) held a media conference on Friday, 18 September 2026 to discuss the latest El Nino forecast and how weather-sensitive sectors should plan for the 2026/27 season. Speakers included experts from SAWS, the University of Pretoria, the National Disaster Management Centre, the Agricultural Research Council and the Foundation for Professional Development.
Professor Willem Landman of the University of Pretoria confirmed that South Africa is already experiencing an El Nino event, describing the 2026/27 event as exceptional in both its timing and magnitude. He noted that the signal emerged unusually early, and that forecasts indicate the event may reach a magnitude unprecedented in the instrumental record, peaking during late 2026 or early 2027.
Dr Christien Engelbrecht of SAWS presented the seasonal outlook, which shows an increase in the probabilities for below-normal rainfall towards mid-summer and very high probabilities for above-normal temperatures across all three-month periods. The public and weather-sensitive sectors are encouraged to follow the monthly seasonal updates as well as daily forecasts, advisories and warnings.
Mr Rudzani Malala of the SAWS Disaster Risk Reduction department stressed that El Nino in itself is not a disaster, but that people should plan for it responsibly and proactively. He said individual weather events should be assessed using daily forecasts and impact-based warnings rather than attributed to El Nino alone.
The National Disaster Management Centre’s Ms Phumeza Tyali said preparedness must begin before impacts materialise, with whole-of-government and whole-of-society coordination. She added that the media form a critical part of the early-warning system by explaining forecast uncertainty, avoiding equating El Nino automatically with drought, and translating technical forecasts into clear language.
Information in this article comes from a media release issued by the South African Weather Service. Read the original release and others on the SAWS media page.
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