South African motorists could get more kilometres for their money this festive season, with the latest mid-month December fuel price projections pointing to a substantial cut in petrol prices. Diesel drivers, however, are unlikely to share in the “festive fuel-good”, with prices expected to move in the opposite direction.
December 2026 fuel price forecast: What is driving expected massive petrol cuts?
The more favourable petrol outlook comes as international oil prices retreat, with benchmark Brent crude oil falling below $100 per barrel, while the rand has strengthened against the US dollar. Both movements could help ease the cost of importing fuel into South Africa.
That would be welcome news after a bruising year at the pumps. Inland 95 petrol surged by R10.15 per litre – more than 50% – between February and October 2026, reaching a record R30.25 per litre. November brought virtually no relief, with a reduction of just one cent, leaving motorists paying R30.24 per litre.
What the latest CEF fuel price data reveals for December
According to the latest mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), substantial over-recoveries on unleaded petrol point to potential price cuts of between R2.30 and R2.60 per litre in December, even after accounting for scheduled government fuel levy adjustments. Diesel, by contrast, is showing under-recoveries, pointing to a possible increase.
November 2026 official fuel prices: What you are paying now
Before any December relief arrives, motorists are still navigating the official November 2026 fuel prices, which took effect on 4 November. Inland drivers continue to pay a steep premium due to inland transport costs, keeping 95 Unleaded Petrol firmly above R30 per litre.
Gauteng (Inland Prices):
- 95 Unleaded Petrol: R30.24 per litre
- 93 Unleaded Petrol: R29.87 per litre
- Diesel (0.05% sulphur / 500ppm): R30.86 per litre
- Diesel (0.005% sulphur / 50ppm): R31.60 per litre
- Illuminating Paraffin (Wholesale): R27.22 per litre (2,722.10 c/l)
Coastal Prices:
- 95 Unleaded Petrol: R29.37 per litre
- Diesel (0.05% sulphur / 500ppm): R29.98 per litre
- Diesel (0.005% sulphur / 50ppm): R30.72 per litre
- Illuminating Paraffin (Wholesale): R26.17 per litre (2,616.70 c/l)
December 2026 fuel price forecast: Full CEF breakdown
While early-November estimates initially projected petrol cuts of R1.52 to R1.82 per litre, accelerating declines in international petroleum product prices have widened the over-recovery margin significantly.
Based on the latest CEF daily snapshots – which factor in the upcoming December fuel levy reduction – motorists can expect the following net movements when prices adjust on Wednesday, 2 December 2026:
- Petrol 95 Unleaded: decrease of R2.62 per litre (bringing inland prices down toward R27.62 per litre).
- Petrol 93 Unleaded: decrease of R2.35 per litre (bringing inland prices down toward R27.52 per litre).
- Diesel 0.005% (50ppm): increase of around 16 cents per litre.
- Diesel 0.05% (500ppm): increase of around 53 cents per litre.
Note: Because international oil markets and the Rand/Dollar exchange rate fluctuate daily, diesel’s modest under-recovery could still swing into positive territory before month-end if current market trends hold.
Why temporary fuel levy relief affects December petrol and diesel prices
To understand why diesel faces a potential hike while petrol plunges, motorists have to look at the National Treasury’s phased R10 billion fuel tax intervention announced by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana.
In South Africa, the General Fuel Levy (GFL) is a fixed per-litre tax charged on every litre of fuel sold to fund general government expenditure. To cushion consumers against severe global oil shocks earlier in the year, Treasury introduced a two-phase temporary levy reduction:
- Phase 1 (4 November – 1 December 2026): The fuel levy was cut by R1.50 per litre for petrol and R3.00 per litre for diesel.
- Phase 2 (2 December 2026 – 5 January 2027): The temporary relief scales back to R1.00 per litre for petrol and R1.50 per litre for diesel.
Reducing this relief would add 50 cents per litre to petrol prices and R1.50 per litre to diesel prices compared with November.
Petrol’s massive international over-recovery (exceeding R3.00 per litre before tax adjustments) easily absorbs the 50-cent levy increase, leaving huge savings for drivers.
Diesel’s international over-recovery, however, is currently hovering just below the R1.50 mark, meaning the returning levy wipes out the international gains.
Meanwhile, illuminating paraffin carries no General Fuel Levy. Households relying on paraffin for cooking and heating did not benefit from November’s levy cuts, and they will not be penalised when the relief scales back in December – allowing them to capture the full benefit of lower international oil prices.
When will December’s official fuel price adjustments be confirmed?
The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources (DMPR) will confirm the final, audited adjustments ahead of the first Wednesday of the month which falls on 2 December 2026.
In the meantime, motorists and fleet operators can track daily fuel recovery data and historical price trends via the Automobile Association (AA) or check regional retail pump structures on Shell South Africa.
Frequently Asked Questions: December 2026 fuel prices
What are the current November 2026 petrol and diesel prices?
In Gauteng (inland), 95 Unleaded Petrol currently costs R30.24 per litre and 93 Unleaded costs R29.87 per litre, while Diesel (50ppm) sits at R31.60 per litre. At the coast, 95 Unleaded Petrol is R29.37 per litre and Diesel (50ppm) is R30.72 per litre.
Could petrol prices drop in December 2026?
Yes, the latest mid-month data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) points to a substantial petrol price cut in December 2026. Petrol 95 Unleaded is projected to drop by around R2.62 per litre, while Petrol 93 Unleaded is showing a potential decrease of roughly R2.35 per litre, driven by falling global crude oil prices and a stronger Rand.
Why are diesel prices increasing while petrol costs are set for a cut in December?
Although international diesel prices have also softened, the National Treasury is scaling back its temporary General Fuel Levy relief on 2 December 2026. This adds R1.50 per litre back onto diesel (compared to 50 cents per litre for petrol), which currently outweighs diesel’s international price gains and leaves it facing a modest projected hike of 16 to 53 cents per litre.
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